Some days ago, John Gruber wrote a very interesting piece speculating about the possible low-cost laptop to replace the current MacBook Air, the subject being raised by a report from Mark Gurman and Debby Wu at Bloomberg. Gruber hypothesises three possible scenarios:

1. A mostly unchanged MacBook Air, but with a Retina display.
2. A new, slightly bigger version of the 12-inch MacBook.
3. The 13-inch MacBook Pro without Touch Bar drops to $999.

Regarding scenario 2, Gruber writes:

Apple could replace the Air with a new, slightly bigger version of the 12-inch MacBook. A 13- or 14-inch display, ultra thin and light, two USB‑C/Thunderbolt 3 ports, the new post-2015 butterfly-switch keyboard. That could be a very appealing machine — I’m sure many people would love a bigger portable display without paying 15-inch MacBook Pro prices. One problem with my years-long ​“Someday the 12-inch MacBook will drop to $999 and replace the Air” theory is that I suspect a lot of people think the 12-inch MacBook is too small. But a 13- or 14-inch big brother to the 12-inch MacBook would presumably cost more, not less, which would contradict Gurman’s description of it as a ​“new low-cost laptop to succeed MacBook Air”. Something like the 12-inch MacBook but bigger sounds to me like something Apple would do, but nothing like what Gurman has reported.

Of all the 3 scenarios outlined by Gruber, I tend to favour this one. And I also think Apple could manage to produce such a MacBook in a way that would make it cost less than the current 12-inch retina MacBook.

What makes a MacBook expensive? The first things off the top of my head are:

• The Retina display
• The building materials
• Some specific internal components and/or design choices (e.g. a high-quality SSD or a peculiar battery design)

So, what I’m thinking is that Apple could equip this purported low-cost MacBook Air successor with a ​‘good enough’ Retina display, maybe a high-density display that’s not as full-featured as the one in the MacBook Pro line; it could lack wide colour gamut support, for example. 

Or, Apple could produce a MacBook using less premium materials, while maintaining the thin-and-light design. I’m insisting on this aspect because, firstly, I see a lot of competitors manufacture decent laptops that feel nice, are affordable, and retain a certain design quality without necessarily being assembled with costly materials. Secondly, looking at the current MacBook Air, which has a mediocre display but a good-quality aluminium unibody chassis, it clearly is the former what’s keeping the machine affordable. 

Therefore, a new laptop with a better display at a similar price point must skimp on something else, and building materials is the first thing coming to mind. It could also feature a lesser-quality SSD or a simpler battery design, but I don’t think Apple would want to introduce a MacBook Air successor with a shorter battery life (although, if it has a Retina display, it’s going to be hard to feature an equally long-lasting battery as the one in the current MacBook Air).

Another aspect Apple can adjust about this theoretical laptop to keep the price down is ports: maybe if this laptop is considered to be the rugged entry-level that can be targeted at students, Apple could retain the MagSafe port and give the laptop two additional USB‑C ports — like Gruber speculated — but without Thunderbolt support, and a regular HDMI port for video. (Again, I’m just brainstorming here, considering different angles.)

Should we keep treating Retina displays as a premium feature?

With Apple removing subpixel antialiasing from Mac OS 10.14 Mojave, it’s clear that Apple is reaching a ​‘Retina everywhere’ point. Retina displays in Macs are six years old; in technology, that’s enough old for a feature to be less expensive to implement than it was at its inception. I honestly don’t know anything about the process and the costs involved in manufacturing Retina displays, and I don’t know anything about the agreements Apple has with their main suppliers (Samsung and LG), but I’m wondering — what if Apple has found a way to make a Retina display a less costly feature for the customer? When basically every Apple product has a Retina display today, it’s getting a bit hard to consider it a stand-out, premium feature.

‘Low cost’ — it’s all relative

Perhaps it’s just me, but Cook’s Apple looks a bit more self-conscious than Jobs’s Apple when it comes to company image and prestige. Under Jobs, Apple seemed to have less of a problem releasing truly affordable products, or trimming prices a bit for a certain product after a couple of iterations. Maybe for today’s Apple, a ​‘low-cost’ MacBook means something like $1,199 or hopefully $1,099, so yes, we could end up with a new laptop that costs less than a base MacBook Pro model but eeeh not that much less. (By the way, if the rumours about the new Mac mini being aimed at ​‘more pro’ users are true, it’s safe to expect another rise in prices for what once was a good, truly affordable desktop Mac.)

The bold move, I think, should be…

Getting rid of the 12-inch MacBook. Don’t jump at my throat just yet. The hypothetically affordable MacBook Air successor should reprise the role of the polycarbonate MacBook of eight years ago as the entry-level versatile Mac laptop for those who can’t afford or don’t need the performance of a MacBook Pro, but don’t want a laptop so petite as the current 12-inch MacBook either. The position left open by the discontinuation of the 12-inch MacBook could be filled (and it would be about time, I think) by the next-generation 12.9‑inch iPad Pro, which I daresay could potentially be a more versatile device than the 12-inch MacBook. Meanwhile, the MacBook and MacBook Pro lines would become a bit more streamlined with regard to models and pricing. There would be this new affordable entry-level 13-inch MacBook, then the 13-inch MacBook Pro without Touch Bar, then the 13- and 15-inch MacBook Pros with Touch Bar. With a bit of fine-tuning, this hypothetical line-up should satisfy a wider range of customers.