Some days ago, John Gruber wrote a very interesting piece speculating about the possible low-cost laptop to replace the current MacBook Air, the subject being raised by a report from Mark Gurman and Debby Wu at Bloomberg. Gruber hypothesises three possible scenarios:

1. A mostly unchanged MacBook Air, but with a Retina display.
2. A new, slightly bigger version of the 12-inch MacBook.
3. The 13-inch MacBook Pro without Touch Bar drops to $999.

Regarding scenario 2, Gruber writes:

Apple could replace the Air with a new, slightly bigger version of the 12-inch MacBook. A 13- or 14-inch display, ultra thin and light, two USB‑C/Thunderbolt 3 ports, the new post-2015 butterfly-switch keyboard. That could be a very appealing machine — I’m sure many people would love a bigger portable display without paying 15-inch MacBook Pro prices. One problem with my years-long “Someday the 12-inch MacBook will drop to $999 and replace the Air” theory is that I suspect a lot of people think the 12-inch MacBook is too small. But a 13- or 14-inch big brother to the 12-inch MacBook would presumably cost more, not less, which would contradict Gurman’s description of it as a “new low-cost laptop to succeed MacBook Air”. Something like the 12-inch MacBook but bigger sounds to me like something Apple would do, but nothing like what Gurman has reported.

Of all the 3 scenarios outlined by Gruber, I tend to favour this one. And I also think Apple could manage to produce such a MacBook in a way that would make it cost less than the current 12-inch retina MacBook.

What makes a MacBook expensive? The first things off the top of my head are:

• The Retina display
• The building materials
• Some specific internal components and/or design choices (e.g. a high-quality SSD or a peculiar battery design)

So, what I’m thinking is that Apple could equip this purported low-cost MacBook Air successor with a ‘good enough’ Retina display, maybe a high-density display that’s not as full-featured as the one in the MacBook Pro line; it could lack wide colour gamut support, for example. 

Or, Apple could produce a MacBook using less premium materials, while maintaining the thin-and-light design. I’m insisting on this aspect because, firstly, I see a lot of competitors manufacture decent laptops that feel nice, are affordable, and retain a certain design quality without necessarily being assembled with costly materials. Secondly, looking at the current MacBook Air, which has a mediocre display but a good-quality aluminium unibody chassis, it clearly is the former what’s keeping the machine affordable. 

Therefore, a new laptop with a better display at a similar price point must skimp on something else, and building materials is the first thing coming to mind. It could also feature a lesser-quality SSD or a simpler battery design, but I don’t think Apple would want to introduce a MacBook Air successor with a shorter battery life (although, if it has a Retina display, it’s going to be hard to feature an equally long-lasting battery as the one in the current MacBook Air).

Another aspect Apple can adjust about this theoretical laptop to keep the price down is ports: maybe if this laptop is considered to be the rugged entry-level that can be targeted at students, Apple could retain the MagSafe port and give the laptop two additional USB‑C ports — like Gruber speculated — but without Thunderbolt support, and a regular HDMI port for video. (Again, I’m just brainstorming here, considering different angles.)

Should we keep treating Retina displays as a premium feature?

With Apple removing subpixel antialiasing from Mac OS 10.14 Mojave, it’s clear that Apple is reaching a ‘Retina everywhere’ point. Retina displays in Macs are six years old; in technology, that’s enough old for a feature to be less expensive to implement than it was at its inception. I honestly don’t know anything about the process and the costs involved in manufacturing Retina displays, and I don’t know anything about the agreements Apple has with their main suppliers (Samsung and LG), but I’m wondering — what if Apple has found a way to make a Retina display a less costly feature for the customer? When basically every Apple product has a Retina display today, it’s getting a bit hard to consider it a stand-out, premium feature.

‘Low cost’ — it’s all relative

Perhaps it’s just me, but Cook’s Apple looks a bit more self-conscious than Jobs’s Apple when it comes to company image and prestige. Under Jobs, Apple seemed to have less of a problem releasing truly affordable products, or trimming prices a bit for a certain product after a couple of iterations. Maybe for today’s Apple, a ‘low-cost’ MacBook means something like $1,199 or hopefully $1,099, so yes, we could end up with a new laptop that costs less than a base MacBook Pro model but eeeh not that much less. (By the way, if the rumours about the new Mac mini being aimed at ‘more pro’ users are true, it’s safe to expect another rise in prices for what once was a good, truly affordable desktop Mac.)

The bold move, I think, should be…

Getting rid of the 12-inch MacBook. Don’t jump at my throat just yet. The hypothetically affordable MacBook Air successor should reprise the role of the polycarbonate MacBook of eight years ago as the entry-level versatile Mac laptop for those who can’t afford or don’t need the performance of a MacBook Pro, but don’t want a laptop so petite as the current 12-inch MacBook either. The position left open by the discontinuation of the 12-inch MacBook could be filled (and it would be about time, I think) by the next-generation 12.9‑inch iPad Pro, which I daresay could potentially be a more versatile device than the 12-inch MacBook. Meanwhile, the MacBook and MacBook Pro lines would become a bit more streamlined with regard to models and pricing. There would be this new affordable entry-level 13-inch MacBook, then the 13-inch MacBook Pro without Touch Bar, then the 13- and 15-inch MacBook Pros with Touch Bar. With a bit of fine-tuning, this hypothetical line-up should satisfy a wider range of customers.